Reaching the final line on the road to the new olive period, it is becoming apparent that this year, harvesting is going to complete much sooner than previous years. If we exclude Spain where the prolonged rainfalls have delayed the harvesting, other olive producing countries like Italy, Tunisia, Greece and Turkey will finish their harvesting quite early.

Spain seems to be the favored one this year, as Spanish production is estimated to about 1.550.000 tons featuring also good olive oil quality characteristics.

On the contrary, in Italy, things seem rather grim mainly because of the frosts but also due to the bacterium xyxella fastidiosa that causes the olive quick decline syndrome (OQDS). Total production is not expected to exceed 190.000 tons… Illustrative of the situation is an article from Italia Olivicola which literally states this season as “dramatic and one of the worst Italy has ever seen”.

Greek production has also taken a severe hit this year, both in quantity and in quality. It will come close to 185.000 tons (worse than firstly estimated hence the big revision for this season’s production).

Regarding other olive producing countries, production is estimated to 200.000 tons for Turkey, 160.000 tons for Tunisia and 110.000 tons for Morocco and Portugal.

Taking into account our previous reports, total worldwide production is expected to be 8% – 10% lower than previous year. On the other hand, according to the International Olive Council, worldwide reserves in the beginning of the olive season are approximately 672.000 tons compared to 375.000 tons of the previous year.

In conclusion, prices may show a slight upward trend until the middle of the month, when, we will have a better picture regarding Spain’s production but without large fluctuations. For the time being, we are still waiting for Spain, which indisputably will set the pace of the olive oil price trends this season.

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Elainos is creating a monthly market analysis, which includes price trends, projections and all significant news about the E.V.O.O. market. This report is sent during the first week of each month.